Thursday, September 15, 2011

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Invest in Taiwan 投資台灣入口網 by *dans


You've no doubt seen all of them or study them. Glossy adverts or four-color advances in periodicals and magazines promising to instruct you all the juicy details about successful real estate investing. And all you have to do to learn every one of these real property investing surface encounters chuck russo secrets is to pay a rather high sum for a one-or two-day seminar.




Often these slick property investing classes claim that you can make intelligent, profitable property investments with simply no money down (other than, of course, the hefty fee you pay for the class). Now, how appealing is which? Make a benefit from real estate investments you made out of no money. Possible? Not most likely.




Successful real estate investment requires income. That's the type of any type of business or perhaps investment, especially real estate investing. You put your money into something which you hope and plan is likely to make you additional money.




Unfortunately not enough newbies to the world of property investing think that it's a magical type of business exactly where standard business rules do not apply. Simply put, if you want to stay in property investing for greater than, say, a evening or two, then you're going to have to generate money to use and make investments.




While it might be true which buying property with simply no money down is straightforward, anyone that is even made a fundamental owning a home (such as buying their own home) is aware there's far more involved in real-estate investing that will set you back money. For instance, what concerning any required repairs?




So, the primary rule people not used to real property investing must remember is always to have obtainable cash supplies. Before you choose to actually carry out any property investing, save some cash. Having slightly money in the bank when you start real property investing surface encounters chuck russo can help you make more profitable real estate investments in rental properties, for example.




When real-estate investing within rental attributes, you'll want to be able to select just qualified tenants. If you might have no cashflow when property investing in rental properties, you might be pressured to take in a less qualified tenant because you need somebody to cover you money to be able to take care of maintenance or lawyer fees.




For any kind of real est investing, meaning leasing properties or properties you purchase to resell, having funds reserved can allow you to ask for a higher cost. You can require a greater price from the owning a home because a person surface encounters chuck russo won't feel financially strapped as you wait for an offer. You won't be backed into a corner and forced to accept just any offer because you desperately need the money.




Another downfall of many new to real estate investing will be, well, greed. Make the profit, yes, but do not become thus greedy that you simply ask regarding ridiculous rental or resale rates on all of your real est investments.




Those new to real property investing need to see property investing like a business, NOT an interest. Don't think that real property investing will make you abundant overnight. What company does?




It requires about half a year to figure out if real-estate investing set for you. If you've decided that, hey I enjoy this, then provide yourself a few years to actually start earning profits. It typically takes at least five years to become truly productive in property investing.




Persistence could be the key to success in real-estate investing. If you've decided that real estate investing is made for you, surface encounters chuck russo keep plugging away at it and the rewards will be greater than you imagined.













You wouldn't think Apple and Indonesia have much in common. On the surface, they don't, but they can still teach you a lot about investing. Let's start with Apple.



Apple made the news recently with two major events. It is locked in a battle with Exxon over which is the most valuable company by market capitalization -- a remarkable turnaround. Apple has a market value of over $344 billion. Then Steve Jobs announced his resignation at Chief Operating Officer for health related reasons.



According to a thoughtful blog by Weston Wellington of Dimensional Fund Advisors (not available online), it was not so long ago that the financial media was trashing Apple. In February 14, 2005, Robert Barker, in an article in BusinessWeek stated "...Apple doesn't tempt me..." I wonder what did. Maybe Lehman or Bear Stearns!



Steven Gandel weighed in with an article in Money on March 24, 2004. He quoted Transamerica portfolio manager Chris Bonavico who opined that Apple stock is "...crap from an investor standpoint."



Many analysts credit the remarkable sales of its Apples Stores as the key to Apple's success. In a quote attributed to David Goldstein, Channel Marketing Corp, which appeared in an article in BusinessWeek on May 21, 2001, Mr. Goldstein gave Apple "two years before they're turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake."



What can you learn from these comments about Apple stock? Read the financial media if you find it entertaining. It's useless (and potentially harmful) as a source of reliable financial advice.



What about Indonesia?



The financial media was preoccupied with the downgrade by Standard & Poor's of the credit rating of the U.S, which lowered its rating from AAA status to AA plus. The new rating places the U.S. below the United Kingdom, Canada and even the Isle of Man.



Many investors viewed the lower rating with alarm and considered it a precursor of low stock returns for decades to come. The data tells a much different story, and may indicate there is no better time to invest in U.S. stocks and bonds.



In another blog, Wellington notes that Standard & Poor's rated the credit of Indonesia a "B" in July, 2001, which placed it in the "junk" category. Over the past decade, its credit rating has never risen to investment grade.



Investors in the Jakarta Composite have earned a total return of a whopping 29% per year over the last decade, ending June 30, 2011. According to Wellington, "If the Dow Jones Average had kept pace with Indonesian stocks over the past decade, it would be over 104,000 today."



Here's the lesson to be learned from Indonesia: A low (or reduced) credit rating on sovereign debt does not necessarily correlate to lower stock market returns. This is the opposite of what many investors and financial talking heads believe.



Most investors get their financial information from the financial media or brokers. As Dr. Phil would say: How is that working for you?





Dan Solin is a Senior Vice President of Index Funds Advisors (ifa.com). He is the author of the New York Times best sellers The Smartest Investment Book You'll Ever Read, The Smartest 401(k) Book You'll Ever Read, and The Smartest Retirement Book You'll Ever Read. His new book, The Smartest Portfolio You'll Ever Own, will be released in September, 2011. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.







The manic depressive market wildly swings up and down on each new news story: The Fed is meeting at Jackson Hole on August 27 possibly to discuss QE3 (or not), and that news may pump up the stock market. But China's banks seem to be using Enron's accounting manual, Europe's banks need liquidity and are loaded with bad debt, and U.S. banks only temporarily TARPed over trouble. Gaddafi's regime in Libya appears over, but Libya's oil output may not fully recover for years. Venezuela wants banks to open their vaults and send back its gold, but Wells Fargo says gold is a bubble. Pundits say gold is a barbarous relic, but exchanges and banks are now using gold as money. The U.S. is headed for hyperinflation with skyrocketing stock prices, but on the other hand, we seem to be deflating like Japan and doomed to a deflating stock market for another decade. Whom do you trust and what should you do?



No one knows where the stock market or U.S. Treasury bonds are headed tomorrow, but in my opinion, here are some fundamentals to consider.



The Bad News Isn't Going Away



Until we have real global financial reform and restrain the banks, we won't have sustained growth. The stock market hasn't hit bottom. There's a crisis of confidence in banks and all currencies. We haven't taken effective steps to tackle the U.S. deficit through productivity. We haven't examined spending to eliminate fraud and waste, and we haven't addressed our need for more tax revenues by eliminating the Bush tax cuts (for starters).



Savers are punished by "stranguflation:" negative real returns on "safe" assets, declining housing prices, and rising costs of food, energy and health care. The Fed touts the falling cost of I-Pads, but how often do you buy one of those, and how often do you eat?



Good News (for Now)



The USD is still the world's reserve currency. Even though we devalued the USD, there has been a global flight to U.S. Treasuries pushing down our borrowing costs (yields). No one in the global financial community feels the U.S. has done its best to correct our problems, but severe problems in Europe, China's inflation, and Middle East unrest has money running to the U.S. Since we've devalued the dollar, we appear to be a bargain for foreign investors, even though they are terrified by our money printing presses and the potential for inflating commodity prices in the long run.



How did I play this? My own portfolio is currently more than 20% gold with some silver, and I bought out-of-the-money call options on the VIX when it was in the teens with maturities of 4-6 months. This is "short" stock market strategy, one could have also done well buying puts on the S&P a few months ago. In the first big stock market downdraft in August, I sold the options when the VIX hit the high 30's, and I'll buy more options again if the VIX falls again. Many investors are not comfortable with options, and this strategy isn't appropriate for everyone. The rest of my portfolio is chiefly in cash or deep value opportunities.



What Happens Next?



No one knows for sure, and anyone who tells you he or she does is selling snake oil. The situation is fluid. We tried to reflate our deflating economy. Our massive dollar devaluation may encourage investment, because it's protectionist. It reduces our cost of labor, among a few other "benefits." The problem is that the Fed has printed money, and we haven't done anything to position the U.S. for greater productivity. We're trying to inflate our way out of a problem without investing in productivity. This is a very dangerous way of attacking this problem. Even more "stimulus" would just be an attempt to inflate our way out of our long-standing deep recession. That's the foolish and unsuccessful strategy we've adopted so far. That could lead to runaway budget deficits (our deficit already looks intractable) and bring us to double-digit inflation. Even the European flight to US Treasuries may not save us from a deeper recession in that scenario.



If we don't overreact -- and we may have already overreacted -- our dollar devaluation results in our foreign trade situation first getting worse (as it has now) before it gets better. Now is the time (actually, we should have started years ago) to spend capital to increase U.S. productivity. The dollar's plunge relative to other currencies will eventually make us more competitive. This will be good for blue chip companies, in particular those that own real assets and manufacture items. The Fed and Washington may do anything, however, so one must watch the news.



What does this mean for the U.S. stock market? In my opinion, it is currently not good value and feels like the 1970s when we experienced a recession followed by inflation. One should consider staying mostly in cash and expect stocks become cheaper. One might miss an interim rally, especially if the Fed announces QE3 (more "stimulus" and money printing) or more bank bailouts, but that is like using Kleenex laced with sneezing powder. We will see stock prices even lower than they are today. The old paradigm dictated that stocks were a buy when P/E ratios were 13 or less (and many are well above that), dividends at 4%, and book values at 1.3 or less. (This excludes oil companies, which tend to trade at lower P/E ratios in general.) I believe we'll see much better deals in coming months. In 1978/79 P/E ratios sank below 7 for blue chip companies.



Should one buy U.S. Treasuries with long maturities? The long end of the bond market doesn't reward investors due to the potential of rising interest rates. If interest rates spike to double digits, then one can reassess the situation.



Long term investors should consider buying commodities or companies that own physical commodities. We're running out of key commodities especially related to agriculture and fertilizer. Washington's brand of the latter isn't the type we need.





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